My next review is on ex-market maker Brian Bottarelli.
(Excerpt from a video by Brian Bottarelli)
“My name is Brian Bottarelli, I’m a pro trader who learned every trick of the trade on the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange. Today you’re going to discover the single greatest trade in the history of the markets…”
Karl Domm:
This is going to be interesting.
(Excerpt from a video by Brian Bottarelli)
“I call it the Win-Both-Ways-Trade. A Win-Both-Ways-Trade can dramatically increase your chance of winning. Offering you up to a 73% win rate and I’ll prove it to you…”
Karl Domm:
Oh, this is going to be good. He’s going to show me all of his trades and then he’ll show that 73% of those particular trades were winners.
(Excerpt from a video by Brian Bottarelli)
“…He said he made a net 130% in three minutes…”
Karl Domm:
Okay, I don’t see any proof. I went through this whole webinar and there were no statistics on how he did a 73% win rate. I mean he does say it but there’s actually no proof that he actually did it. After this webinar I was offered a course on the ‘trade both ways trade’ along with many other bonuses.
One of the bonuses was an Options for Dummies guidebook and Wall Street’s Most Treasured Secrets which is an eight volume series revealing these secrets. Plus, a special bonus volume and all this for only $79.
But first I’m going to get into my take on the webinar. So based on the webinar, which was over an hour by the way, Brian talks about having unlimited upside and downside potential on an earnings play using his Win Both Ways Trade. Based on my best guess using my experience in watching the webinar, this sounds like he’s going long a call and long a put before earnings.
The thing about earnings is that they are a binary event. In other words, everyone knows there’s a potential for a big move of the stock based on the earnings report. This means that there is an anticipation that the underlying stock will move more than usual. When this binary event is known, the options are priced high due to the expected volatility. If the options are priced high, it means that the expected move based on the earnings report is already priced in to the options.
In fact, the options are typically overpriced in case the move is larger than expected. A lot of experts actually sell options at earnings because they are statistically known to be overpriced. This means that buying options ahead of earnings is a low probability trade. From watching the webinar, it looks like Brian likes to place low probability trades which lose money most on the time and occasionally win. This trade has no directional risk as advertised but has major volatility crush risk. The losses outweigh the wins statistically like a slot machine in Las Vegas.
Well, this is my early take. Let’s see what happens when I review the actual course. Also he said in the webinar that he wins 7 out of 10 trades. And based on what I’ve seen in the webinar he’s placing low probability trades and a 70% win rate is highly unlikely. If this is what I think it is then the Win Both Ways Trade has been statistically proven to lose money.
So with the $79 course I have an 8 volume series with a bonus and each volume is a video of 5 min. to 8 min. long. So this means I will be giving my opinion on nine separate modules or pieces of information.
So in volume one Brian sent me off to learn from a guy named Kkarim Rahemtulla. Karim was featured on the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Business Insider, and CNBC. And Karim says all you need is a 5% move from a stock based on earnings and it’s a win with this system.
In my opinion, this depends on which stock you choose to deal with. Some stocks have an expected move of 6%. And if the stock does not exceed its expected move, then this options play loses money. I watched this guy Karim for 5 min. and I’m confused because all I know is that I need to buy options. I don’t know which options to buy or what underlying to use. I did not see any executions or entries or exit rules.
Then I was sent back to Brian and he said I have everything I need to execute the trade. Then I notice that I was upsold to Brian’s Picks: And That’s how to get the Job Done Right. And I need to join what he calls his war room to get his winning picks. My thoughts are “did I just give this guy $79 for useless information in order to be up-sold.” I just spent over an hour watching a webinar and now I’m paying for another sales webinar. Well, let’s see what the other volumes have to offer.
Next in volume 2, the system was explained by Karim again and the system is placing longer time frame low probability trades. He also talked about being down in a trade and all you need to do is just double down and that’s all you need. And you can make a comeback and end up ahead. Now, doubling down on your options plays can get your account blown up really fast. Oh, and I also got another up-sell to the war room in this volume too.
Now, volume 3 is a trading system I back-tested actually on this channel. And the words treasured secrets was used to describe it. In my opinion, volume 3 covers a very basic well-known trading system that’s very inefficient and creates large drawdowns in accounts. After watching this video, my thoughts are I should put together a basic nuts and bolts 5 minutes each video explaining the basic trade structures using options and charge $79 so I can upsell to a higher price service. That’s just a thought going through my mind.
Now volume 4, and based on the title, we’re going over another common option strategy. And I hope there’s something interesting besides the obvious. Karim talks about a win-rate being the determining factor in my decision to open a trade. Well, just because I knew I could win 75% of the time does not mean that I would place that trade. I mean, what if I win $100 75% of the time; but when I lose, I lose $2,000 25% of the time. I’m not placing that trade.
Unfortunately, volume 4 turned out as expected. In my opinion, this is all very common newbie information that can be easily found on Youtube and elsewhere for free. Karim also makes the assumption in his theory that you can pick a stock that goes up 5% a year. Well, who knows if a stock is going to go up 5% a year. What if you chose a stock back in the year 2000, the stock you picked to go up 5% a year could actually go to 0. And I think you should consider this in his thesis.
I was able to see his theory work in his examples from the war room, but maybe I should sign up. It looks like they pick winners every time. Obviously, the last statement there was me being sarcastic.
So far if they use these strategies in the war room, they will need to pick the right direction of the underlying stock to be successful. You may already know this, but I have not found a proven trader that can be successful picking a stocks direction, manage money around that, and be able to teach that or be consistent doing it. One guy does come to mind that I’ve seen do it and that is John Carter, but I’m not sure how consistent he will be in the future.
This concludes part one of my review on Brian Bartorelli’s Both Ways Trade. Be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss part two. And if you’re interested, I have a free proprietary course and I’ll put a link in the description below if you want to sign up for that course. And hey, don’t forget to hit that like button on the way out, thanks.
LINKS MENTIONED:
Link to my FREE Proprietary Course
